What to look for in Obama’s Afghanistan speech

Truth hurts. If you’re president of the United States, stuck with thousands of soldiers in an Afghan quagmire, it hurts bad. When Barack Obama decides how to go forward in Afghanistan, shying away from reality is a comforting but disastrous option. So it is encouraging that the new Afghanistan plan, to be made public in a speech at West Point today, is likely to include an exit-strategy. Why? Because we, in the words of press secretary Robert Gibbs, “have been there for eight years. And we’re not going to be there forever”.

This is not to say that the President is going to withdraw all US troops from Afghanistan right away. To the contrary, his new policy will add an additional 30 000 troops too the theatre, plus an excepted allied contribution of about 10 000 (of which the half is more realistic).

It is on Obama’s insistence that the new strategy includes an exit-strategy as well. The president pushed back against the advice of his generals and ordered them to provide one. What he says about this is the most interesting information to listen for in tonight’s speech. Will the strategy include a timeline, or just more clear objectives? Without a realistic idea of of what it takes to declare “victory” and get out, a troop increase is nothing but an expensive way of kicking the can down the road. Establishing conditions that make withdrawal possible without facing Taliban takeover should be the primary objective in Afghanistan. In Defence Secretary Bob Gate’s words, it makes no sense trying to create a Central Asian “Valhalla” there.

Because, let’s face it, The US and NATO are not going to spend billions of dollars and lose thousands of soldiers in Afghanistan the next fifteen years. It’s simply not going to happen. At some point in the not so distant future we are leaving. That’s the reality, and we should accept it sooner rather than later.